Quantifying Spillover Risk with an Integrated Bat-Rabies Dynamic Modeling Framework

Vampire bat-transmitted rabies has recently become the leading cause of mortality in both humans and livestock Latin America. Evaluating risk transmission from bats to other animal species thus a priority region. An integrated bat-rabies dynamic modeling framework quantifying spillover cattle farms was developed. The model is spatially explicit calibrated state São Paulo, using real roost farm locations. Roost characteristics, as well environmental data through an ecological niche model, are used modulate transmission. Interventions aimed at reducing roosts (such bat culling or vaccination) (cattle were considered control strategies. Both interventions significantly reduce number outbreaks disease spread (based on distance source), with being better intervention. High-risk areas also identified, which can support ongoing programs, more effective interventions.